So - who is going to win the Premier League?

I was just about to vote on the QoS poll for the winner of the Premier League next season and I couldn’t. My “trigger” finger was itching over my mouse button, but as I hovered over the four boxes, stopping at each one, I found that I just couldn’t click.

 

Over a month after the FA Cup final, and with only a few weeks to go before the friendlies start up again, which of the four clubs have really come out and said “This is our year”? So here is QoS’s guide to where to put your vote now that we’re halfway through the transfer window.

 

Man Utd

Man U held off Liverpool’s challenge to win the EPL last year without really seeming to play as well as we know they can. A few scintillating spells, notably that second half against Spurs, and the Champions League Semi Final against Arsenal, disguised the fact that they seemed to win by default (or what most ex-pros probably like to attribute to “experience”). With the assumption of maybe one or two new faces, bookmakers had them down as 11/8 favourites for the next season, but the transfer window hasn’t quite worked out that way. Losing one talisman would seem careless, but to lose both Tevez and Ronaldo could be terminal for any other team. Barring the ever-dependable Rooney, their forward line is now led by Owen and Berbatov, two players that even Newcastle and Tottenham fans weren’t always convinced by. And there are several other question marks all round the Utd team which will decide next season: Are Scholes, Giggs and Neville finally past it? How will the next generation of Anderson, Nani, Tosic, Macheda et al shape up, as certainly for Anderson and Nani, this season is make or break. They are still the team to beat, thanks mainly to their phenomenal defence, but their odds have now dropped to 15/8, so the market is clearly not impressed with their summer so far.

 

Liverpool

At the end of last season, Liverpool were 3/1 to be crowned EPL champions, and after their huge £17m splurge, they have come down to... well, still 3/1. But that seems to be Rafa’s way, and over the last few years he has been adding slowly, knocking off each weak link one by one. At least Glen Johnson’s signing shows that he seems to have finally signed a full back who might be quite good (OK, I can hear the Chelsea fans murmur). Rafa’s blind spot in this position has always reminded me of captaining my Sunday League side – nine players sorted out by Friday, and spending all day Saturday hunting for two full backs to make up the numbers – Josemi, Zenden, Kromkamp, Arbeloa, Dossena anyone? However, they now have the two most exciting forward players in Torres and Gerrard, and a midfield to better any of the big four. But somehow we all suspect that this might still not be quite enough...

 

Chelsea

Solid, successful, but uninspiring under Mourinho, they have become a bit of a basket case. Can Ancelotti mould together this part-Mourinho, part-Scolari, part-Hiddink team into Milan version 2? I always believe that if you follow a great manager, you are on a hiding to nothing. Who will really want to follow (and therefore be endlessly compared to) Ferguson or Wenger? Scolari was never going to find it easy as he was just not the “Special One”. And in a strange way, Hiddink has probably made Ancelotti’s job that much harder. He knows the players all wanted Hiddink to stay, so will he struggle to win over a team with such strong personalities as Terry, Ballack and Drogba? On the back of their FA Cup win they were 4/1 for the league, but after the first part of the summer - where, whilst not really moving forward themselves, Utd seemed to have moved backwards - they are now down to 13/5. With a fit Michael Essien, and an re-enthused Drogba and Anelka, they might be the team to watch, as they certainly seemed to be after the first few months of last season... but then the wheels came off and the egos surfaced. They’ve got the talent, and the depth of squad. It’s now down to Ancelotti.

 

Arsenal

“On their day” and “if points were given for style” are two phrases that Arsenal should have woven into their shirts. The constant search for replacements to Adams and Vieira seems to have gone on for years now, and whilst we wait to see whether Vermaelen might fill the boots of the former, one suspects that Liverpool have now surpassed Arsenal as Utd's and Chelsea's main irritant. Certainly the disappointing “truce” between Ferguson and Wenger seems to indicate this. But Wenger does like to surprise us, and two years ago the phenomenal form of Flamini almost pushed them all the way until Eduardo’s ankle, and Gooners’ hearts, were broken at Birmingham; would we all be surprised if another of the youngsters broke through again to push them closer? They have splatterings of class all round the team but, you suspect, not quite enough in depth. At the end of last season they were 10/1, and have now come in to 9/1, but it looks very much like a three-horse race next season, and Arsenal will just be watching.

 

 

We’re all still waiting for this summer’s defining signing, and in the run-up to 15th August watch this space for more EPL preview. Until then, take a punt, click on the poll; but I bet like me, you’ll find it pretty tight to call.