World Cup play-offs: seeding we could have done without

The draw was made in Zurich today for a number of tasty World Cup qualifying play-off ties but the whole show has been marred by the decision to seed half of the teams involved – something that was neither necessary nor fair. The seeding meant that four of the eight European sides (which FIFA learnedly refer to as the “play-off octet”) would each be guaranteed to face one of four lower-ranked teams, based on the latest world rankings. It is, disappointingly for the neutral, a system that is designed to preclude a Clash of the Titans, leaving you rather with David vs Goliath and that most paradoxical of football pursuits: the search for the ‘potential upset’.

To be clear, none of the four unseeded teams should yet be written off. As FIFA’s own announcement rather curiously points out, “the ranking positions of the unseeded teams does not necessarily reflect their current form”. But it’s a matter of principle. Yes, it’s nice to see the ‘big’ sides represented on the biggest stage. Yet if a big boy like France cannot win its group to earn automatic qualification, then the ‘lottery’ of a runners-up play-off is no more than they deserve. And why is it fair for a minnow like Bosnia to secure passage into the play-offs only to have it weighted against them? Much like the introduction of group phases in European club competition, it is difficult to see this as anything other than an attempt to prolong the involvement of established powers.

So, imagining a draw without seeding, QoS conducted a small experiment...

First, for the record, the official draw as announced by FIFA (seeds in capitals; world rankings in brackets; ties to be played over two legs on 14 and 18 November):

Republic of Ireland (34) vs FRANCE (9)
PORTUGAL (10) vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (42)
GREECE (16) vs Ukraine (22)
RUSSIA (12) vs Slovenia (49)

Now the completely unofficial alternative draw - random and unseeded - as conducted by quantumofsport.com:

Ukraine vs Portugal
Greece vs Bosnia
Russia vs Ireland
France vs Slovenia

That concludes the draw ladies and gentlemen. Still not very lucky for some perhaps (sorry, Ireland). But which would you rather see – the seeding or the random?

Comments

[dupin]

An 8/35 chance of this happening, I make it...

[Ceann Mór]

I personally think seeding is perfectly reasonable but it should have been based on their qualifying performance - after all Norway came second in their group but did not make it to the play-off octet. Surely they should have had a crack at Uruguay rather than giving the 4th team in CONCACAF a chance (however theoretical) of getting through.
Interestingly our random draw still pitched the four seeded teams against 4 unseeded sides
As an Irish supporter I am much happier with drawing France than Portugal or Russia. A side whose away record includes a loss to Austria and only beating the Faroe Islands by a single goal can hold no fear for Giovanni's green & white army.
My play off predictions:-
Ireland, Portugal, Ukraine and Russia to go through in Europe
Uruguay in the CONMEBOL / CONCACAF playoff and
the all whites of New Zealand to triumph over Bahrain in the Oceania/Asia play off.