World Cup 2010: Groups of Death - and of Life

Group of Death – a group so overwhelmingly weighty that an established thoroughbred, a form horse or even a fancied dark horse is bound to fall at the first fence. There was, inevitably, a lot of talk before the World Cup draw in Cape Town about potential Group/s of Death. In fact the term seems to have become increasingly established (nay clichéd) over the years. FIFA ran a piece on Groups of Death ahead of the draw saying that “of the ten sections which are generally accepted as the most difficult over the last 50 years, Argentina have featured on no less than five occasions”, while “Argentina, in 1978, and Brazil, in 1958 and 1970, are the only nations to have emerged from a 'Group of Death' and gone on to win the trophy”. Perhaps it is time for FIFA to go the whole hog and designate an Official Group of Death ahead of each World Cup. Teams successfully negotiating the group could then be offered some kind of reward – extra half-time oranges perhaps – to make their lives easier in the all-important knockout stages.

After 1½ hours of moderately entertaining television (which was if nothing else a welcome distraction from the Tiger Woods saga), the Cape Town draw had thrown up two obvious Group-of-Death candidates – appropriately enough, the groups lettered G (Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, North Korea, Portugal) and D (Australia, Germany, Ghana, Serbia). At the same time the draw gave some teams ostensibly easy “Groups of Life”. This was the case notably for England, Italy and Spain but arguably also for France too, who surely can’t have hoped for much better than Mexico, South Africa and Uruguay having not been seeded for the draw. What happened to “no such thing as an easy game in international football”? For teams having it really easy an extra handicap should be introduced – yes, that’s right: no half-time oranges. But that’s quite enough from me – let’s hear what our resident pundits think about how the groups and teams are shaping up, from A to H...

GROUP A (France, Mexico, South Africa, Uruguay) by Ceann Mor

The bookies make it a straight fight between Mexico and Uruguay for 2nd place with South Africa rank outsiders and France the hottest of favourites to top the group.

Ceann Mor's predicted group winner: MEXICO (world ranking as at 20 Nov 2009 – 15)
After a sticky start Mexico qualified well for the World Cup and are my choice for the side that will top group A. They only qualified on goal difference for the 2nd stage of qualifying but finished strongly with 5 straight wins to qualify 2nd to the USA in the Concacaf section of qualifying.
Key man:- Veteran striker Cuauhtemoc Blanco.
Runner-up: URUGUAY (19)
Uruguay were also far from convincing qualifiers, squeezing through in a playoff against Costa Rica with a goal that was clearly offside proving the difference between the sides. They beat only one of the top four in South American qualifying. Despite this, and their failure to advance beyond the first round since 1990, I believe this could be their year.
Key man:- Diego Forlan - his goals will be crucial if Uruguay are to progress.
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Third: FRANCE (7)
France qualified through the backdoor of the playoffs, losing out to Serbia in their qualifying group.  They lost to Austria and perhaps more shockingly only beat the Faroe Islands by one goal during their qualifying campaign. Despite their lofty ranking this is one of the poorest outfits to qualify from the European section. This is a dramatic fall from grace from a side that won the tournament 11 years ago and reached the final last time round. Something dramatic needs to change if France are to rediscover the form that made them a world force.
Key man:- Raymond Domenech - there is no lack of quality in this squad but Domenech has thus far proven incapable of unlocking their potential.
Fourth: SOUTH AFRICA (86)
Bafana Bafana have done little to suggest they can overcome the odds with their performances in the last couple of years, spectacularly failing to reach even the second stage of qualification for the African Cup of Nations which takes place in Angola just a few months before the main event. Home advantage will not be enough to overcome their lack of talent and experience.
Key man:- Benni McCarthy will need to lead from the front if the home side are to have any chance of getting out of Group A.

 

GROUP B (Argentina, Greece, Nigeria, South Korea) by The Worm

This has Argentina as very strong favourites in a weak-looking group. They will be rubbing their hands with glee as in a tougher group might have struggled to progress but will now expect to build up some momentum and much-needed confidence for the knockout stages. Otherwise, this group contains one of the poorest if well organised European sides, a Nigerian team with strong World Cup heritage and quality in Mikkel, Martins and Yakubu but which struggled to get past Kenya in the qualifiers, and South Korea whom the Worm admits to knowing little about (shame on you! :) – ed). Given Côte D’Ivoire’s tough draw, African hopes may once again fall on the Super Eagles.

The Worm's predicted group winner: ARGENTINA (8)
Runner-up: NIGERIA (22)
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Third: GREECE (12)
Fourth: SOUTH KOREA (52)

 

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GROUP C (Algeria, England, Slovenia, USA) by Dupin

At first sight (and even at second sight), a straightforward group for England, who might have been a touch fortunate to have been seeded for the draw. Under the disciplined stewardship of Fabio Capello, they will be one of the favourites to win the competition, and this Group will hold no fears for them. Whenever England and the USA meet, the 1950 match in Belo Horizonte is cited, when England, appearing in their first ever World Cup, were humbled 1-0 in a group game. The USA are very much a known quantity these days with many of their players plying their trade in the English Premier League. Something along the lines of Pelé’s “An African country will win the World Cup by 2000” might be applied to the USA by, let’s say, 2040. The reports are always of a burgeoning soccer scene but somehow that never quite manifests itself in the national side. Algeria made brief appearances at the 1982 and 1986 Finals and have since won the African Cup of Nations but are considered to be the weakest of the participating African nations and don’t look to be a serious threat on qualifying form. Slovenia are making their second Finals appearance after a forgettable experience in 2002 when they lost all their group games.

Dupin's predicted group winner: ENGLAND (9)
An impressive qualifying campaign, where they chalked up 27 points from a possible 30 and scored more goals than any other European qualifier. Wayne Rooney was the star man with nine goals and some brilliant all-round displays. England have beaten both the USA and Slovenia within the last couple of years. Never played Algeria but wintery conditions should make this game a gimme. Capello’s verdict: “not so bad”.
Runner-up: USA (14)
The confidence from an excellent showing in the Confederations Cup in June, where they beat Spain in the semis and lost 3-2 to Brazil in the final, has been dampened by some less than impressive recent results, including a 5-0 drubbing by Mexico in the Concacaf Gold Cup in July. Should have too much nous not to make it through though.
Star man: Landon Donovan.
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Third: SLOVENIA (33)
Pulled off the shock of the play-offs in beating Guus Hiddink’s impressive Russian side over two legs. Had originally finished second in a tough group, won by Slovakia and also featuring the Czech Republic and Poland. No obvious star turns but Robert Koren is a decent ball-player and Novakovic looks handy up front.
Fourth: ALGERIA (28)
The most battle-hardened of the teams after some serious duels with Egypt. They originally finished joint top with Egypt in a group containing the underwhelming talents of Zambia and Rwanda. A politically fractious play-off with Egypt saw the Desert Foxes prevail at a neutral venue in Khartoum, Sudan.
Star man: Mourad Meghni, “le petit Zidane”.

 

GROUP D (Australia, Germany, Ghana, Serbia) by 4-3-3

Germany has to be the strong favourite for this group – with its pedigree for performing well in competition and its strength in depth relative to the others in the group. To my mind, the race for second place is quite open – although I would tip Ghana to sneak it ahead of Serbia, aided slightly by the fixtures. Over-optimists will probably have noticed that the team that wins England’s group (Group C) will play against the second from this group. And vice versa.

4-3-3's predicted group winner: GERMANY (6)
Although Michael Ballack is a massively important player for the Germans, they have a range of good players and particularly strong team spirit. They finished 2nd and 3rd respectively in the last 2 World Cups despite having only 2-3 world class players. And I would not want to bet against them doing well in South Africa. The team is not as settled as it usually is at this stage – but a number of young players are coming through, such that the team may actually be stronger by next summer than it was during a qualifying campaign in which their only stumble was a 3-3 draw against Finland in Helsinki. Certainly  Adler in goal and Özil in midfield have the potential to be the key players, as well as the imperial Ballack of course – while much depends on whether at least one out of Gomez, Klose and Podolski manage to find the sort of form that is eluding them in the Bundesliga at present.
Runner-up: GHANA (37)
As a Chelsea fan, I have to support any team which the wonderful Michael Essien plays for. The knowledge that he should be playing alongside Stephen Appiah and Sulley Muntari, with Junior Agogo and Matthew Amoah supporting the attack, means that the Africans are probably good going forward. However, they appear to be suspect at the back, as they struggled somewhat to qualify – only finishing ahead of Libya and Gabon on goal difference. They had a young team (average age less than 24) 4 years ago, and if they can avoid losing to Serbia in the first game, they might get to the last game against Germany with the Germans already qualified.
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Third: SERBIA (20)
Managed by former Luton Town hero Raddy Antic (the one that scored THE goal in the final match of the season in 1983 at Man City that prompted the famous David Pleat dance on the pitch at the final whistle). Serbia (at that stage still with Montenegro) qualified for the 2006 World Cup ahead of Spain (!), but lost every single game 4 years ago – to Argentina, Ivory Coast and Holland. That experience left scars, and Antic has basically left out Mateja Kezman and Savo Milosevic, and built his side around Nemanja Vidic (Manchester United) and Dejan Stankovic (Inter Milan). Other leading names include Chelsea’s Branislav Ivanovic and Milos Krasic (CSKA Moscow), with Marko Pantelic (Ajax) and Milan Jovanovic perhaps their best known other players. In qualification they finished ahead of a very ordinary French team, but while I have the impression that their defence is much more solid than 4 years ago, I’m not convinced that they will score many goals, nor have the discipline to survive – especially if they don’t beat Ghana in their opening game.
Fourth: AUSTRALIA (21)
Although they were very unfortunate to go out to a dodgy Italian penalty 4 years ago, I can’t see them doing as well this time. Mark Schwarzer, Tim Cahill, Lucas Neill and Harry Kewell are all 4 years older – and the vital Mark Viduka is no longer playing (surely!). It’s rather difficult at this stage to judge how well Pim Verbeek (Guus Hiddink’s number two 4 years ago) has managed to bring on a new team – with numbers made up from various European first divisions and the Championship in England.

4-3-3’s score predictions:

Sun	13.06. 16:00	Pretoria	Serbia	-	Ghana	0-1
Sun	13.06. 20:30	Durban	Germany	-	Australia	2-0
Fri	18.06. 13:30	Port Elizabeth	Germany	-	Serbia	1-0
Sat	19.06. 16:00	Rustenburg	Ghana	-	Australia	1-1
Wed	23.06. 20:30	Johannesburg	Ghana	-	Germany	2-2
Wed	23.06. 20:30	Nelspruit	Australia	-	Serbia	1-2

 

GROUP E (Cameroon, Denmark, Japan, Netherlands) by 4-3-3

While Group D is dominated by Chelsea players, Group E has an Arsenal ring to it in the form of van Persie vs Bendtner vs Song. The Dutch are surely the favourites to win what may look like an easy group on paper. They have always had extremely gifted footballers but have only rarely managed to produce a team that is worth more than the sum of the individual players. The performances of Wesley Sneijder and Robin van Persie will be the litmus test. And Arjen Robben and his glass ankles of course. While they might struggle later on in the tournament, the all-round talent is surely too strong for any other team in the group. At the same stage we should not forget that Morten Olsen’s Denmark won their group ahead of Portugal and Sweden. Danish strengths centre on the tactical discipline and team spirit instilled by Olsen.  Meanwhile, a closer look at the Cameroon squad shows that the Indomitable Lions have more to offer than just Samuel Eto'o. Midfield trio Jean Makoun, Stephane Mbia and Alex Song have Champions League experience, and Benoit Assou-Ekotto and Sebastien Bassong have been Premiership regulars this season. And keeper Carlos Kameni has apparently made a name for himself at Espanyol. Indeed, if Cameroon can beat Japan in the first game, it will give them a great advantage in the game against Denmark, such that they could - maybe - even be qualified before they start against the Dutch. As for Japan, I’m afraid I don't fancy them for anything beyond last place.

4-3-3's predicted group winner: NETHERLANDS (3)
Runner-up: DENMARK (26)
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Third: CAMEROON (11)
Fourth: JAPAN (43)

4-3-3’s score predictions:

Mon	14.06. 13:30	Johannesburg	NL	-	Denmark	1-0
Mon	14.06. 16:00	Bloemfontein	Japan	-	Cameroon	0-1
Sat	19.06. 13:30	Durban	NL	-	Japan	2-0
Sat	19.06. 20:30	Pretoria	Cameroon	-	Denmark	1-3
Thu	24.06. 20:30	Cape Town	Cameroon	-	NL	1-1
Thu	24.06. 20:30	Rustenburg	Denmark	-	Japan	2-0

 

GROUP F (Italy, New Zealand, Paraguay, Slovakia) by Ceann Mor

A good draw for the world champions Italy and they are odds on to win this group. If the bookmakers are to be believed then this is the easiest group of all to predict with the Italians and Paraguay the qualifiers with Slovakia in 3rd place.

Ceann Mor's predicted group winner: ITALY (4)
The Azzurri qualified well, remaining unbeaten in a group containing as much quality as the group they now find themselves in. This is not always the case with Italy so this side deserves respect and are my tip for outright World Cup winners.  It would be an enormous shock if Italy did not qualify as winners of group F.
Key player:- Fabio Cannavaro - Italy need their top centre back to remain fit as they do not have as much firepower going forward as some of the other contenders.
Runner-up: PARAGUAY (30)
Paraguay look to be the only likely challengers to Italy and having beaten both Brazil and Argentina in qualifying should not be written off too quickly. However, I think the Italians will have just a little bit too much for them, but second place and a dangerous opponent in the second round where they will probably face Holland.
Key player:- Roque Santa Cruz played little part in their qualifying campaign due to injury but will be crucial in ensuring they score the goals they need to go through.
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Third: SLOVAKIA (34)
Slovakia qualified from a group containing the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia but were fortunate to catch the Czechs and Poles in a period where they are not the forces they once were.  Expect some good performances but an early exit.
Key player:-  Stanislav Sestak. 6 goals from 6 qualifying games is a record that speaks for itself.
Fourth: NEW ZEALAND (77)
The All Whites of New Zealand have little hope of qualifying from this group. They had pretty much the easiest qualification of all the qualifiers for this World Cup, and their target should be securing their first point in a World Cup finals tournament at the second time of asking.
Key player:- Mark Paston is likely to be the busiest keeper in the tournament, and he will have to produce some great performances to keep them in the running.

 

GROUP G (Brazil, Côte D’Ivoire, North Korea, Portugal) by The Worm

I suppose this goes down as the inevitable Group of Death, and, on the assumption that Brazil are going to top it and North Korea will finish last, the group’s opening game between Ivory Coast and Portugal in Port Elizabeth looks like the pivotal match and perhaps the most mouth-watering of all the group fixtures. It’s a hard one to call, particularly as it’s unclear whether the South African conditions will afford the Ivorians any home advantage. One has to favour the European savvy and leave the Elephants regretting another tough World Cup draw.

The Worm's predicted group winner: BRAZIL (2)
Runner-up: PORTUGAL (5)
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Third: IVORY COAST (16)
Fourth: NORTH KOREA (84)

 

GROUP H (Chile, Honduras, Spain, Switzerland) by Dupin

Spain top the FIFA rankings after a hugely impressive couple of years in which they finally got it together to land a biggie – the European Championships in 2008. Have a good chance of emulating the French achievement of consecutive major triumphs (World Cup 1998, Euro 2000).

Dupin's predicted group winner: SPAIN (1)
Cruised through qualifying with ten wins out of ten. If anything, even stronger than the Euro 2008 team with Xabi Alonso having made his mark alongside Xavi and Iniesta. A super-effective little-and-large strike force of Villa and Torres.
Runner-up: CHILE (17)
Could be something of a dark horse after an outstanding qualifying campaign in which they finished second only to Brazil. Suazo notched ten goals and looks to be their best striker since Salas.
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Third: SWITZERLAND (18)
Were the best of an average bunch in their qualification group and are in the Finals largely due to the front pair – hardy perennials Alex Frei and Zaire-born Blaise Nkufo, who both scored five goals. Elsewhere, little to set the pulse racing.
Fourth: HONDURAS (38)
Scraped through the weak Concacaf group, courtesy of a late USA equaliser against Costa Rica. Their qualification has at least brought some respite to the country, which is in political turmoil after a coup in July. Almost certain to be the whipping boys.
Star man: Spurs’ Wilson Palacios.

Comments

[Charles le Roi]

While Wayne Rooney may have slept through the proceedings in Cape Town (titillated by scouse grannies he may be, by Charlize Theron obviously not), your humble commenter has either been asleep ever since or has singularly failed to spot anybody pointing out the unusually obvious conclusion from the draw. No, not that there is no god otherwise the French would have been so handsomely rewarded for the most flagrant cheating since Tiger Woods last visited Las Vegas, but that the draw should have delivered us a term that in due course would become as irritatingly omnipresent as the 'group of death'. What is abundantly clear from the draw is that those with genuine pretensions of winning the tournament will have done themselves a world cup of good by avoiding the lower half (groups E-H) of the draw. This is undeniably the 'half of death'. Current World Champions Italy, current European Champions Spain, current Copa America holders Brazil, the European Brazil Portugal, and the thinking man's Germany the Netherlands, all reside in this half of the draw. This compared to a top half containing current bete noir of the footballing world France, current bete noir (schwarz asch?) of the German public Germany, the poor man's Brazil Argentina, and perennial quarter final penalty shoot out victims England. Contrast a potential France-Greece last 16 meeting with Spain-Portugal at the same stage. Those in the top half of the draw have an above average chance. If England can beat Germany on penalties in the second round, they may just go all the way...