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Soccer’s money blues: it’s time for a re-think

The English Premier League is one of the country's greatest exports, and has over the last few years arguably become the most important league in the world. The premier one, no less? And we all know, with our business hats on, that red sells. Not just in newspaper mastheads, and adverts, but in the EPL too. The romance of great clubs such as Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal. Will anyone really want to watch over the next few seasons as the blues of West London and Manchester begin to dominate? Can any neutral really get excited about a Chelsea vs Man City showdown at the end of the season?

Unfortunately for the EPL’s red contingent, the signs on the financial side aren’t promising. Manchester Utd, it was rumoured, might end up having to sell off prize asset Wayne Rooney in view of their staggering levels of debt. Liverpool have found themselves in a position where they allegedly do not have the cash to fire their manager. Arsenal, meanwhile, seem to have become a selling club, or at least one not prepared to go out and spend big money on big-name players. But come to think of it, there are some blues on the blue side of the EPL too. Just look at Portsmouth. And, who knows, the bubble might burst one day for a bigger club from that part of the colour spectrum. So what is to be done about football’s money woes, red or blue...?

Wenger's Christmas Conundrum: Stick or Twist?

So, is the title race wide open again? In a near perfect reverse of Arsenal's loss to Manchester United earlier in the season - the better side took an early lead, had a stonewall penalty turned down, and then proceeded to concede an own goal and an unlucky second - the win against Liverpool now puts Arsenal firmly back in touch with Chelsea and Manchester United. It took a freak weekend of results, but the striker-less and apparently dwarf-like Arsenal side have limped into third with the revolving door of the physio's room still going round. But can they stay in the race?

Now that Van Persie has been ruled out for the rest of the season, and Bendtner for another few weeks, Arsène Wenger has a decision to make in January - stick or twist? Eduardo and Vela have so far failed to make any impression in the Premiership, and one suspects that Wenger's stubbornness will mean that he will continue with both of the diminutive lefties until they succeed.

But might he just take a gamble? Talk around the stadium is that in Gazidis, the new MD, Arsenal finally have someone to push Wenger and ask him to rethink, much as Dein did in the past when Arsenal were winning titles. And maybe Wenger might indeed take a gamble on someone such as Edin Dzeko. You can imagine the excitement at the Emirates to have a giant to cause a bit of chaos in the opposition penalty area.

Or will Wenger stick? In a strange way, most Gunners are all dreading the announcement of the signing of Chamakh on a free transfer for the summer - not that it wouldn't be good business - but that it would tell them all they need to know: like the last few seasons Wenger is sticking, and looking to the future again...

The Gunners are coming.

Speedball2 completes the QoS look at the Premier League's main contenders by assessing the challenge of Arsenal...

Well, according to received belief, Arsenal fans should not bother to turn up this season; optimists predict 4th; pessimists suggest Man City should and – perish the thought – Spurs could pressurize their Champions League berth.

But unlike the rest of the top four, Father Time is a friend at the Emirates. This season, Arsenal fans will not have to endure the sad decline of favourite players, such as van der Sar, Neville, Giggs and Scholes. Most fans measure their teams' progress by the new signings made, but Gooners will not have forgotten the dramatic in-house improvements made by Flamini and Hleb that took Arsenal to the summit for so long a few seasons back before “that” game against Birmingham. If Song, Walcott, Bendtner, Wilshere et al. can do likewise and seize their chances, then there are enough seasoned Premier League players around them to make Arsenal viable challengers for the title. And I think that the other three big clubs actually look weaker than they have over the last few seasons; Utd have lost their best player, and most Liverpool fans “in the know” would probably say that they have too. As for Chelsea, they showed last season that under the wrong manager they can look pretty ordinary (although the reverse is also true). Whilst Man City and Spurs are looking to catch Arsenal, I think that Liverpool may prove to be the more vulnerable. I wonder if the top six will actually be closer than ever?

Transfers

In: Thomas Vermaelen (Ajax £8m rising to £10m)
Out: Toure (£16m), Adebayor (£26m)

Goalkeeper

Manuel Almunia has had a quiet few seasons for Arsenal, which in goalkeeping terms is no bad thing, of course. The common perception is that he is not good enough - that might be the case but at least he has purged the “uncharacteristic” errors that are now commonplace with Cech and van der Sar. Only Reina has been a better keeper in the last twelve months.

Fullbacks

The position where Wenger has struck gold the most in his reign. Gael Clichy and Bacary Sagna are two of the best – if not the best, bar Evra – in the country. Quick going forward, strong at the back, the fullbacks have always been essential to the way Wenger plays, frequently playing beyond the wide midfielders and adding bodies to any attack. In reserve, Kieran Gibbs is a very exciting prospect, looking totally at home playing in a Champion’s League semi-final, even after his disastrous slip, and Eboue is still an excellent if misguided and unloved player.

Centre Backs

With Toure gone and Senderos seemingly going, Wenger still says he will be strengthening this position, with height being the priority. Gallas has been an immensely impressive defender over the last few years for Arsenal and Chelsea, and ever since he was stripped of the captaincy, has knuckled down and started to play some of his best football. He will be a happier player this season having never combined well with Toure on or off the pitch, and with both a World Cup place, and a new contract / new club to attract with his contract expiring in 2010, he has a lot to play for. The big question mark is over Vermaelen. Like Gallas, he is under six feet tall, so this may not be the ideal partnership, but at last Arsenal have a player who has captained his previous side and is an international regular; the hope is that he will provide some of the leadership skills that have so obviously been lacking since Vieira left. Djourou is a regular Swiss international, and a tall one at that, but he has never really taken his chance at cementing his place in the side, while Silvestre is clearly a last resort.

Centre Midfield

Arsenal’s central midfield is something of a frustration to most of the fans. In Fabregas, Arsenal have possibly the most talented midfielder in the country, and yet alongside him there is no-one even close to his level. Alex Song, Denilson and Diaby are all decent enough Premier League players but none of them are Vieira. Or Petit. Or even the Romford Pele, Ray Parlour. Fabregas is crying out for a bodyguard to let him play, especially in those dark evening kick-offs in the North West that seem to derail Arsenal every season. It is the one blind spot that irks every Arsenal fan, with the feeling that not replacing Vieira has cost us every year. Each summer we flirt with another possible; this season it was Melo, Matuidi and Cana; last year Wenger’s £16m bid for Alonso was 200k shy of what Liverpool wanted if the rumours are correct. Gokhan Inler and Yaya Toure have been linked most summers, although probably the midfielder Arsenal fans would spend the most on would be Flamini, who walked away on a free just as he was starting to fulfil his potential. If Wenger cannot buy a top defensive midfielder before the window closes, most fans are resigned to another season of being also-rans.

Wingers

How many do you want? Arshavin, Walcott, Rosicky, Nasri, Diaby, Eboue, Vela, Traore. To be fair, it’s a pretty good collection, all with their pros and cons. In pre-season Wenger has played a lot with the 4-3-3 system, which seems to suggest that he will probably be tucking in his midfield with the strikers running the channels and the full backs providing a lot of the width. That should give us more stability, I just hope we don’t start playing as dull-ly as all those teams who played 4-3-3 a few years back.

Strikers

With Adebayor gone, the average striking ability seems to have risen. Van Persie will start as the no.1, but many people are expecting big things from Bendtner. He is usually the anti-Match-of-the-day player; whilst he works his socks off chasing, harrying, passing, tackling, etc. he tends to round off his good display with an appalling miss, the only highlight of his that will be shown. Having Eduardo back will be a big positive, and he looks pretty sharp so far in pre-season. Expect to see Arshavin, Walcott and Vela supplement at various parts of the season. Whilst Arsenal do not have a stand-out player, such as Torres, Rooney or Drogba, it is still a high quality collection, and there should be plenty of goals between them.

Star man

Andrei Arshavin. He had a very good introduction to English football last season and people won’t forget his four goals at Anfield in a hurry. Now with eight months of adapting, and a good pre-season behind him, fans are pinning all their hopes on the man who may be able to fill the boots of our last magician, Denis Bergkamp. He would prefer to play in Bergkamp’s position, but Wenger will probably start him on the left wing, especially with Nasri out until September

Surprise package

Maybe the surprise is no more, but Jack Wilshere will be big news this season. Certainly the most talented Englishman to appear since Rooney, Capello has already talked about taking him to the World Cup. Wenger says he will use him sparingly, but if has a good few games early on, the Arsenal fans may not let him be held back.

Prediction

They can win it if everyone clicks. I think they will surprise everyone but I’m not sure if they will last. Second. Behind Chelsea.

 

So - who is going to win the Premier League?

I was just about to vote on the QoS poll for the winner of the Premier League next season and I couldn’t. My “trigger” finger was itching over my mouse button, but as I hovered over the four boxes, stopping at each one, I found that I just couldn’t click.

 

Over a month after the FA Cup final, and with only a few weeks to go before the friendlies start up again, which of the four clubs have really come out and said “This is our year”? So here is QoS’s guide to where to put your vote now that we’re halfway through the transfer window.

 

Man Utd

Man U held off Liverpool’s challenge to win the EPL last year without really seeming to play as well as we know they can. A few scintillating spells, notably that second half against Spurs, and the Champions League Semi Final against Arsenal, disguised the fact that they seemed to win by default (or what most ex-pros probably like to attribute to “experience”). With the assumption of maybe one or two new faces, bookmakers had them down as 11/8 favourites for the next season, but the transfer window hasn’t quite worked out that way. Losing one talisman would seem careless, but to lose both Tevez and Ronaldo could be terminal for any other team. Barring the ever-dependable Rooney, their forward line is now led by Owen and Berbatov, two players that even Newcastle and Tottenham fans weren’t always convinced by. And there are several other question marks all round the Utd team which will decide next season: Are Scholes, Giggs and Neville finally past it? How will the next generation of Anderson, Nani, Tosic, Macheda et al shape up, as certainly for Anderson and Nani, this season is make or break. They are still the team to beat, thanks mainly to their phenomenal defence, but their odds have now dropped to 15/8, so the market is clearly not impressed with their summer so far.

 

Liverpool

At the end of last season, Liverpool were 3/1 to be crowned EPL champions, and after their huge £17m splurge, they have come down to... well, still 3/1. But that seems to be Rafa’s way, and over the last few years he has been adding slowly, knocking off each weak link one by one. At least Glen Johnson’s signing shows that he seems to have finally signed a full back who might be quite good (OK, I can hear the Chelsea fans murmur). Rafa’s blind spot in this position has always reminded me of captaining my Sunday League side – nine players sorted out by Friday, and spending all day Saturday hunting for two full backs to make up the numbers – Josemi, Zenden, Kromkamp, Arbeloa, Dossena anyone? However, they now have the two most exciting forward players in Torres and Gerrard, and a midfield to better any of the big four. But somehow we all suspect that this might still not be quite enough...

 

Chelsea

Solid, successful, but uninspiring under Mourinho, they have become a bit of a basket case. Can Ancelotti mould together this part-Mourinho, part-Scolari, part-Hiddink team into Milan version 2? I always believe that if you follow a great manager, you are on a hiding to nothing. Who will really want to follow (and therefore be endlessly compared to) Ferguson or Wenger? Scolari was never going to find it easy as he was just not the “Special One”. And in a strange way, Hiddink has probably made Ancelotti’s job that much harder. He knows the players all wanted Hiddink to stay, so will he struggle to win over a team with such strong personalities as Terry, Ballack and Drogba? On the back of their FA Cup win they were 4/1 for the league, but after the first part of the summer - where, whilst not really moving forward themselves, Utd seemed to have moved backwards - they are now down to 13/5. With a fit Michael Essien, and an re-enthused Drogba and Anelka, they might be the team to watch, as they certainly seemed to be after the first few months of last season... but then the wheels came off and the egos surfaced. They’ve got the talent, and the depth of squad. It’s now down to Ancelotti.

 

Arsenal

“On their day” and “if points were given for style” are two phrases that Arsenal should have woven into their shirts. The constant search for replacements to Adams and Vieira seems to have gone on for years now, and whilst we wait to see whether Vermaelen might fill the boots of the former, one suspects that Liverpool have now surpassed Arsenal as Utd's and Chelsea's main irritant. Certainly the disappointing “truce” between Ferguson and Wenger seems to indicate this. But Wenger does like to surprise us, and two years ago the phenomenal form of Flamini almost pushed them all the way until Eduardo’s ankle, and Gooners’ hearts, were broken at Birmingham; would we all be surprised if another of the youngsters broke through again to push them closer? They have splatterings of class all round the team but, you suspect, not quite enough in depth. At the end of last season they were 10/1, and have now come in to 9/1, but it looks very much like a three-horse race next season, and Arsenal will just be watching.

 

 

We’re all still waiting for this summer’s defining signing, and in the run-up to 15th August watch this space for more EPL preview. Until then, take a punt, click on the poll; but I bet like me, you’ll find it pretty tight to call.